10-company surcharge model — 2019 to 2024
Federal tax liability (FTL) estimated at ~60% of combined fed+prov tax paid. Surcharge = 25% of estimated FTL. All figures CAD $M. Source: annual reports / SEDAR+
| Corporation | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 6-yr FTL | 6-yr Surcharge | Mkt Cap 2019 | Mkt Cap 2024 | Δ Cap |
| RBC | 1,714 | 1,368 | 2,054 | 2,259 | 2,245 | 2,531 | 12,171 | 3,043 | 149,130 | 250,294 | +101,164 |
| TD | 1,410 | 1,142 | 1,738 | 1,806 | 1,328 | 1,759 | 9,183 | 2,296 | 130,067 | 135,407 | +5,340 |
| BNS | 1,229 | 938 | 1,281 | 1,381 | 1,070 | 992 | 6,891 | 1,723 | 88,015 | 88,690 | +675 |
| BMO | 867 | 705 | 1,121 | 1,324 | 748 | 1,043 | 5,808 | 1,452 | 62,597 | 126,573 | +63,976 |
| CIBC | 755 | 523 | 827 | 941 | 752 | 887 | 4,685 | 1,171 | 49,881 | 76,973 | +27,092 |
| Enbridge | 339 | 320 | 453 | 419 | 486 | 590 | 2,607 | 652 | 96,648 | 132,193 | +35,545 |
| Suncor | 521 | -307 | 725 | 1,967 | 1,574 | 1,171 | 5,651 | 1,413 | 63,295 | 60,059 | -3,236 |
| Manulife | 655 | 482 | 782 | 871 | 632 | 827 | 4,249 | 1,062 | 47,429 | 58,118 | +10,689 |
| CNQ | 192 | -108 | 353 | 1,712 | 1,503 | 1,346 | 4,998 | 1,250 | 42,858 | 47,427 | +4,569 |
| Loblaw | 289 | 294 | 364 | 403 | 469 | 517 | 2,336 | 584 | 20,001 | 46,628 | +26,627 |
| Total cohort | 7,971 | 5,357 | 9,698 | 13,083 | 10,807 | 11,663 | $56,239M | $14,060M | $750B | $1,022B | +$272B |
FTL = Federal Tax Liability (est. 60% of combined fed+prov). Surcharge = 25% × FTL. Suncor 2020 negative tax = loss year; FTL treated as $0 for surcharge purposes.
Bracket C — CSEEF universe (FTL > $100M)
CRA does not publish by tax-dollar bracket. All estimates derived from large-corp counts and 15% federal rate structure. CSEEF threshold: $100M FTL. $20M threshold retired.
| Bracket | Corps/yr | % FedTax | CSEEF? |
| A — FTL < $10M | ~1.2M | ~31% | No |
| B — FTL $10M–$100M | ~820–1,010 | ~27% | No |
| C — FTL > $100M ★ | ~215–275 | ~41–42% | Yes |
| Metric | 2019 | 2022 | 2024e |
| Bracket C corps | 215 | 270 | 255 |
| FTL collected ($B) | 26.7 | 40.4 | 40.5 |
| Avg FTL/corp ($M) | 124 | 150 | 159 |
| Surcharge 25% ($B) | 6.7 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
6-year cumulative estimate
| Metric | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 6-yr Total |
| Bracket C FTL ($M) | 26,690 | 27,060 | 36,650 | 40,405 | 41,342 | 40,540 | 212,687 |
| CSEEF Surcharge 25% ($M) | 6,673 | 6,765 | 9,163 | 10,101 | 10,336 | 10,135 | ~$53,173M |
★ $100M FTL threshold is the permanent CSEEF policy parameter. A corporation paying $100M federal tax at 15% has taxable income of ~$667M.
Federal government revenue 2019–2024 ($B)
Source: Dept. of Finance Annual Financial Reports; Public Accounts of Canada. FY = Apr 1–Mar 31.
| Revenue source | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Personal Income Tax | 163.9 | 154.9 | 193.4 | 198.7 | 216.5 | 234.3 |
| Corporate Income Tax ★ | 50.1 | 48.2 | 76.0 | 93.9 | 80.0 | 97.0 |
| GST Revenue | 37.3 | 37.5 | 40.2 | 48.1 | 46.8 | 52.5 |
| EI Premiums | 22.5 | 24.0 | 21.7 | 24.3 | 27.2 | 29.8 |
| CPP Contributions | 52.0 | 54.1 | 60.5 | 65.5 | 71.1 | 76.8 |
| Total Federal Revenue | 334.1 | 332.5 | 403.7 | 437.6 | 456.8 | 511.0 |
★ CSEEF surcharge touches only corporate income tax — the slice above $100M FTL. All other revenue: completely untouched.
TSX market data 2019–2024
| Metric | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| TSX Year-End Close (pts) | 17,063 | 15,453 | 21,246 | 19,384 | 20,958 | 25,073 |
| TSX Annual Return (%) | +19.1 | -5.8 | +21.7 | -5.8 | +11.8 | +17.8 |
| TSX Total Market Cap ($B) | 3,158 | 2,878 | 3,679 | 3,248 | 3,791 | 6,271 |
| Market cap increase 2019–2024 | | +$3,113B |
Data sources and methodology
10-Company Cohort Model
1Corporate financials from annual reports filed on SEDAR+. Tax figures = combined federal + provincial income taxes paid as reported.
2Federal/provincial split: ~60% federal, ~40% provincial — consistent with CRA Tables 10/11 ratio 2019–2023.
3Surcharge: 25% × estimated FTL. Share issuance valued at volume-weighted 30-day average share price as of filing date.
4Market value: Modelled positions × year-end 2024 closing prices. Positions modelled as held in full for simplicity — no FIFO sales applied.
5Dividends: DPS × modelled share positions per year. Run-rate uses 2024 DPS × total accumulated position.
Bracket C Universe — FTL > $100M (CSEEF Threshold — Permanent)
1CRA does not publish tax-dollar brackets natively. Bracket C estimated by subtracting Brackets A and B from total, anchored to known 10-company figures.
2Rate reference: $100M FTL at 15% general rate = ~$667M taxable income. The $20M threshold is retired and does not appear in any CSEEF documentation.
TSX Wealth Creation Estimate
1Confirmed: TSX total market cap $3,158B (2019) → $6,271B (2024) = +$3,113B. Source: TMX / CEIC Dec 2024.
2Bracket C share: Estimated ~55–60% of TSX appreciation — large-cap weighted. Working estimate: ~$1.7–1.9 trillion in new wealth for the CSEEF universe.
3CSEEF capture rate: ~$53–60B ÷ ~$1.8T = ~3 cents on every dollar of new corporate wealth, 2019–2024.
All data auditable from public sources. Nothing in this model is estimated that can be sourced directly.